ホンジュラス関係 今朝のTHE JAPAN TIMESの記事です。
Ousted Honduran president sees U.S.support waning
El Paraiso Honduras
REUTERS
Disheartened supporters of ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya trickled home from the Nicaraguan
border Sunday and he complained that U.S. condemnation of his removal from power was waning.
Zelaya on Sunday criticized the U.S. for the second time in two days, complaining that Secretary of
State Hillary Rodham Clinton had stopped using the term “coup” to describe his removal.
Honduran troops manning checkpoints have prevented several thousand demonstrators from staging a show
of support for the leftist leader at the border since he briefly crossed it Friday.
Ten km from the border, 100 weary protesters milled around the coffee town of El Paraiso, a far cry
from the massive outpouring of public backing Zelaya had called for.
Four weeks after the military overthrew Zelaya, Central America’s worst political crisis in 20 years
looks as intractable as ever.
Here are some scenarios on how the crisis could play out:
Standoff drags on
A stalemate could persist, with Zelaya in exile and the interim government holding out until
elections due on Nov.29, which de facto Honduran leader Roberto Micheletti says will go ahead.
Multinational lenders halted aid programs to the impoverished country soon after the coup, and the
United States suspended $16.5 million in military assistance but has so far stopped short of harsher
economic sanctions.
Micheletti’s government, backed by Congress, the Supreme Court, the military, the Catholic Church
and many in business, seem to be gambling that after an election monitored by outside observers, the
world will end its isolation of Honduras and accept the new order.
Without serious pressure from the United States, Honduras’No.1 trading partner, Micheletti may be
right.
The Organization of American States, which suspended Honduras after the coup, has said it will not
recognize the outcome of any elections held under the de facto government.
The two leading candidates are the ruling Liberal Party’s Elvin Santos and the conservative
opposition National Party’s Porfirio Lobo, who is ahead in opinion polls. The two parties dominate
Honduran politics and both are largely conservative, though the Liberal Party is slightly less so.
Neither of the candidates want Zelaya back as president.
Zelaya’s confrontation with the country’s institutions hurt his popularity ahead of the coup and he
drew ridicule from his critics for his televised attempt to return Friday.
Brokered solution
Diplomatic and economic sanctions could force the interim government to agree to a compromise: Zelaya
could return with powers severely curtailed, or a third party could take over the presidency, such as
the head of the Supreme Court, who would be next in line according to the constitution.
During negotiations mediated by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, Micheletti’s envoys held out the
possibility of his stepping down to make way for a coalition government on the condition Zelaya does
not seek a return to power.
Micheletti said he would consider an amnesty for Zelaya if he agrees to return quietly to Honduras
and face justice for his alleged violations of the law.
The interim government has also suggested bringing forward the November elections, in which neither
Micheletti nor Zelaya would run for the presidency.
Zelaya says the Costa Rica process is dead since the interim government will not accept his return.
The Honduran armed forces, which have close ties to the U.S.military, expressed support for the
negotiations but would be wary if Zelaya returned as president.
Zelaya returns
Despite tough talk, Zelaya has shown little appetite in recent days for forcing a return to Honduras
without a political deal, taking only a few symbolic steps on Honduran soil Friday before pulling back,
saying he did not want to spark a massacre.
A previous attempt to fly home in a Venezuelan plane July 5 was blocked by the military and sparked
clashes between soldiers and his supporters, killing one protester.
Micheletti’s government accuses Venezyelan President Hugo Chavez of interference, and there is
growing unease in Washington about Zelaya’s friendship with the socialist Chavez, a harsh critic of
all things American.
Chavez put troops on alert when Zelaya was toppled last month and has played a polarizing role in the
crisis by ramping up the threatening rhetoric, although most analysts doubt his military prowess is
enough to actually intervene.
Zelaya was ousted in part because local politicians and business leaders feared he aimed to impose a
Chavez style socialist government in Honduras.
Photo Making contact: Xiomara Castro, wife of ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya, speaks on her
mobile phone in front of a military checkpoint that blocked her from going to the border Sunday
near the town of Jacaleapa, 85 km west of Tegucigalpa. AFP-JIJI
